June 15, 2026 — still in my pyjamas, third cup of tea, group stage on in the background

My brother texted me this morning. Just sent me a laughing emoji with no context.

I knew exactly what it meant. He’s been telling me for weeks that I’m wasting my energy talking about dark horses when Brazil and France are just going to steamroll everything anyway. Classic him. He does this every tournament. And every tournament at least one team comes out of nowhere and ruins everyone’s bracket and he goes completely quiet for three days.

I can’t wait for that to happen again.

Because this year — more than any World Cup I can remember — the conditions are perfect for it. 48 teams. A format nobody’s totally comfortable with yet. Groups that have genuine chaos baked into them. And a set of teams sitting quietly in the background that I think are about to do something serious.

Five of them specifically.

Here’s who I’m watching and why I think each one of them could absolutely ruin someone’s tournament.

Norway

Right, I’ll say it. Norway are my team this year.

Not to win it — let’s not go completely mad. But to go deep? To reach the quarters or maybe even further and make everyone suddenly start googling their players’ names? Absolutely yes.

Here’s the thing about Norway that keeps getting glossed over in the big football media. They didn’t just qualify for this World Cup — they tore through qualification. Thirty-seven goals in eight games. Against real European teams who were also desperate to be here. That’s not a fluke number. That’s a team that knows exactly how to hurt people.

And then there’s Haaland.

I know, I know — everyone knows Haaland. But I don’t think people are really sitting with what this tournament means to him. He’s spent years watching Messi, Ronaldo, Benzema — all these generational strikers — get their World Cup defining moments. He’s watched from his sofa. This is his first one. And he scored sixteen goals just in qualifying like he was warming up in the car park before the real game started.

If Norway get through Group I — France and Senegal are in there, which is horrible, but it’s genuinely doable — they become one of the most frightening teams left in the draw. Who’s excited to face Haaland in a knockout game after he’s been building momentum for three weeks? Nobody. Literally nobody.

Japan

I was literally halfway through writing the Norway section when the Japan vs Netherlands result came through on my phone.

Drew with the Netherlands. Just casually. Like it was nothing.

I nearly spilled my tea.

Look — I’ve been saying this about Japan for about two years now and people keep looking at me like I’ve said something slightly unhinged. But watch them properly. Like actually sit down and watch a full Japan game and pay attention to what they’re doing off the ball. The pressing is suffocating. Teams spend entire halves just trying to breathe, trying to find any bit of space to play forward, and Japan just swarm every single passing lane.

And the players are genuinely good now. Not just disciplined and hard-working — though they’re still both of those — but technically good. Bundesliga regulars. Premier League contributors. Players who’ve been in knockout rounds at the biggest clubs in Europe. They’ve handled pressure before and it didn’t break them.

That Netherlands result was Japan saying hello. I think there are bigger statements to come.

Senegal

Every tournament I do this. I tell people to watch Senegal. People nod politely and change the subject. Then Senegal go out and physically dominate a game for ninety minutes and everyone goes “oh wow where did that come from.”

WHERE DID IT COME FROM? I told you where it came from. It came from a squad full of players who are bigger, faster and more organised than you gave them credit for.

The group they’re in is genuinely tough — France, Norway, it’s not a free ride. But this is the thing about Senegal that I think people miss completely. A tough group stage doesn’t scare a team like this. It sharpens them. If they come through Group I having held or beaten France and Norway — what does that do to their confidence going into the knockouts? What team in the round of 32 is going to feel good about drawing Senegal after that?

I’m putting Senegal in my quarterfinals. Quietly, with full confidence, I’m putting them there.

FIFA 2026 underdog country prediction? Senegal. Done. Moving on.

Morocco

Okay can we just stop pretending 2022 was some kind of beautiful accident that we should appreciate and move past?

Morocco knocked out Spain. They knocked out Portugal. They kept clean sheets against teams that had no business not scoring against them. They reached a World Cup semifinal — the first African nation ever to do it — and they did it through hard work yes, but also through genuine quality and an extraordinary team spirit that you simply cannot fake over seven matches.

And now they’re back.

The manager has changed which I’m not going to pretend isn’t a factor — it is, new managers always bring uncertainty. But look at the players still in this squad. These are people who know what it feels like to win a knockout game against a massive nation. They’ve had that experience. It lives in them now.

They’re in a group with Brazil which is their big mountain to climb. But I keep coming back to the same thought: Morocco beat Portugal with Ronaldo standing right there. Brazil isn’t untouchable. Nothing is untouchable when Morocco are defending for their lives.

World Cup 2026 shock result predictions that I’ll stand behind completely: Morocco beating someone they have absolutely no business beating. It’s coming. Probably when we least expect it.

Switzerland

I know what you’re thinking. Switzerland? Really? That’s the big dark horse call?

Just hear me out for one minute.

I’ve been watching football tournaments for a long time and the team that almost never gets celebrated before the competition is the quiet, organised, defensively solid, won’t-give-you-anything side that just grinds and grinds until suddenly it’s the quarterfinals and they’re still there.

That’s Switzerland. Every time.

Their group this year is genuinely kind to them — Canada, Bosnia, Qatar. That’s a group Switzerland should be winning. And they’ll go into the knockouts having barely conceded, having kept their shape perfectly, with a squad that’s experienced enough not to melt under pressure in a one-off game.

Knockout football rewards the team that doesn’t make mistakes more than the team with the flashiest attacking players. Switzerland have made a career out of not making mistakes.

Best new team at FIFA World Cup 2026 in terms of entertainment? Probably not. Best team to still be alive when the exciting teams have all knocked each other out? Watch this space.

So who’s actually going the furthest from this list

Norway. Final answer.

Haaland at his first World Cup with a point to prove and a team built specifically around making him as dangerous as possible. I just don’t see how you stop that if they get momentum.

But all five of these teams are going to do something in this tournament that has people scrambling to rewrite their predictions. Japan already started. Morocco are circling. Senegal are about to remind everyone why I’ve been banging this drum for two years.

My brother’s going to have to send a lot more laughing emojis before he goes quiet.

Drop your own dark horse in the comments — genuinely curious who I’ve missed.

Tags: FIFA 2026 dark horse team to watch · which team will surprise at World Cup 2026 · FIFA 2026 underdog country prediction · World Cup 2026 shock result predictions · best new team at FIFA World Cup 2026